Tracking numbers in a vacuum can often appear arbitrary. A film can have a rate of 50% Theatrical Intent, but how many times has that translated into a domestic haul of more than 100 million…
Early Movers: Can ‘The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ Grow Beyond Its Breakout?
Early Movers is a new monthly Greenlight Analytics series designed to surface which upcoming films are breaking through early and how they’re doing it. Each installment examines both full-funnel standouts and month-over-month momentum, offering a…
Tracking Schedule – Week of 2/2
The chart below shows the films that are scheduled to be fielded this week. Titles one through eight are set, nine and 10 are subject to change if an unexpected event disrupts the schedule. If…
Box Office Behavior: $10M Super Bowl Film Trailers Are Just Empty Marketing Calories
“Now the Eagles get it back. They’re gonna run some clock… or maybe… THROW THE DAGGER. HURTS GOING DEEP, FOR IT ALL… DEVONTA SMITH!!! HE’S GOT IT!!! TOUCHDOWN!!!” The Super Bowl is built on moments…
Weekend Preview: ‘Send Help’ and Identifying Growth Opportunities
After establishing a baseline for horror, 20th Century’s Send Help is attempting to buck the average and overachieve. But beyond just future box office grosses, how can we quantify “growth” and “potential?” Recognizable on-screen talent…
2026’s First $50M Opener: The Race Between Romance and Horror
Remember during the streaming boom of 2019-2022 when Wall Street would inflate or punish media stocks based on quarterly subscriber numbers while completely ignoring profitability and free cash flow? It was the entertainment era equivalent…
Tracking Schedule – Week of 1/26
The chart below shows the films that are scheduled to be fielded this week. Titles one through eight are set, nine and 10 are subject to change if an unexpected event disrupts the schedule. If…
Weekend Preview: ‘Mercy’ and the Challenge of Finding the Right Box Office Comp
Data is more abundant today than ever and with AI to help automate processes (and preside over criminal trials), predicting film outcomes from standardized data should be easier, right? Well, not exactly. Processes can be…
Tracking Schedule – Week of 1/20
The chart below shows the films that are scheduled to be fielded this week. Titles one through eight are set, nine and 10 are subject to change if an unexpected event disrupts the schedule. If…
Weekend Preview: ’28 Years Later: The Bone Temple’ and the Sequel Marketing Test
The sequel to 28 Years Later, releasing only seven months after its June 2025 release date, is the third consecutive horror film of the new year and one of the most highly anticipated horror follow-ups….