Weekend Preview: ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Represents the Pinnacle of Audience Enthusiasm

In the midst of a perceived superhero slump, one hero rises above all others (including an overperformer from ancient Greece two weeks prior) to become the pinnacle of what the blockbuster summer genre has to offer: Spider-Man. Almost five years have passed since the record-breaking run of Spider-Man: Now Way Home ($805 million domestic), and audiences are definitely still clamoring for more as if no time has passed at all. 

However, without the allure of returning prior Spider-Men, can Brand New Day even come close to No Way Home’s debut ($260.1 million) in this new era? Spoiler alert: yes. But how can we tell? What does an audience with the potential to double the openings of The Odyssey, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, and Toy Story 5 look like? 

 Unsurprisingly, Spider-Man: Brand New Day scores high overall with general audiences. Even compared to 2026’s highest openers so far—Toy Story 5 ($159.7 million) and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie ($131.7 million)—its overall Awareness and Theatrical Intent among the target under-35 audience is remarkably similar. However, the differentiator between Tom Holland’s web-head and its other anticipated sequel counterparts is an even greater sense of enthusiasm. Let me explain…

Like all anticipated intellectual properties (IPs) and sequels, Spider-Man: Brand New Day comes with a built-in aware and interested audience sight-unseen with high metrics from all demographics as far out as six months in advance. Occasionally, with such a towering starting point, high profile films will see awareness continue to grow in the final six weeks without much lift in interest and/or intent. The audiences are usually already activated and simply need motivation to see the film either opening weekend or in a premium format specifically. That’s not the case for Brand New Day. Its audience is locked and is nowhere near finished growing.

Within its final six pre-release weeks, Brand New Day’s awareness growth among the target under-35 audience matches Toy Story 5. But, even more interesting, Spider-Man’s theatrical intent growth also matches The Odyssey despite starting at an elevated level. The same significant intent growth that pushed The Odyssey beyond Oppenheimer-levels to Superman’s   opening weekend performance tier is playing out again. This time, it’s potentially turning a Deadpool & Wolverine-level performance into a No Way Home or even Avengers: Endgame-level repeat. This is a highly rare box office pattern that speaks to the enduring demand of Peter Parker and Marvel Studios’ incredibly effective cultivation of this iteration over the last decade.

If that weren’t enough, Brand New Day’s interest and theatrical intent are significantly beyond even Toy Story 5. For overall intent and intent among casual audiences, this fourth solo Spidey flick leads by nearly10%. Casual audience intent even nears 60%, a level many blockbuster films are unable to reach even among their target audiences. Furthermore, Brand New Day’s overall premium large format (PLF) intent among the general public or in opening weekend specifically are 11% higher than both Toy Story 5 and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. They’re a whopping 15% higher than The Odyssey, despite having no access to IMAX screens because of The Odyssey! How’s that for a fun fact?! 

With almost half of the general public ready to see Brand New Day opening weekend and on any large screen they can find, the film already has the intent levels to leave the year’s top three openings in the dust.

Finally, what likely takes Spider-Man: Brand New Day over the top and beyond is the heat (audiences who rated their interest as a 7/7) among the audience that grew up with this iteration of Spider-Man: 18-24 year olds. Heat, which reflects the highest level of overall interest in a film, indicates extra potential for audience turnout from those who are still highly interested in the film but may be just on the edge of committing to see the film in theaters. For Toy Story 5 and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, this age segment showed similar high Heat levels. Mario skewed significantly more male while Toy Story remained relatively even and proved to be a slightly broader audience play. 

For Brand New Day, heat among 18-24 year olds clears Toy Story 5 by 14% and Mario by almost 20% with an also relatively even gender split. With almost half of all 18-24 year olds indicating the highest level of interest for Brand New Day, its similarly high 36% opening weekend intent is anything but theoretical. There is massive pent up demand for this film, especially among younger Spider-Man fans, with broad appeal across most demos. 

Since the majority of high-profile  box office performers share massive interest and intent levels, the numbers all start to feel the same at some point. But if Spider-Man: Brand New Day is to perform significantly higher than Toy Story 5, how can we truly know beyond a 6% difference in overall interest and 9% difference in overall intent? By looking deeper within those sub-10% differences. Therein lies intense and concentrated levels of enthusiasm not yet seen this year. Some of the highest levels of overall awareness and intent, continuous growth, intense enthusiasm among both men and women in the target age range—Spider-Man: Brand New Day has all it needs to potentially set a brand new record for the franchise. Yes, that means No Way Home’s $260 million debut is not only possible, but perhaps even likely.