Weekend Preview: Can ‘Toy Story 5’ Go to Infinity & Beyond at the Box Office?

It’s easy to say Toy Story 5 will open to big dollars without any data. Death, taxes and blockbuster box office for this franchise are facts of life. Like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, the addition of data simply provides more insight into what a potential record-breaking hit looks like (rather than merely hinting whether the next installment will be a hit or a flop). Tracking a possible performance range, though, is where the analysis for Toy Story 5’s audience comes into play.

At six weeks out, Toy Story 5 had already accrued standard blockbuster opening metrics We’re talking more than 50% general awareness, upwards of 50% general interest, and more than  45% general intent. From there, performance depends on audience composition and the potential path those ticket buyers take. Comparing Toy Story 5 to the previous highest opener of the year—The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, also an animated IP-juggernaut—is the immediate baseline that comes to mind. However, even the audiences for animated family films diverge within the same genre depending on the content. 

There’s a stricter age dynamic at play when comparing Toy Story 5 and April’s Mario sequel (which opened to $132 million en route to $429 million domestic). The latter had a roughly 20% gap in intent between the over/under 35 demos despite sharing similar overall metrics with Toy Story 5. Branching out beyond animation to the most recent four-quadrant hit, Michael, Toy Story shows a significant lead in awareness along with interest and intent among the target under-35 audience. Even in comparison to Disney’s previous animated sequel Zootopia 2, Buzz and Woody were tracking lightyears ahead thanks to a 10%+ lead with audiences over 35 in awareness, interest, and intent. (Us ‘90s kids are all grown up!)

So from initial analysis, Toy Story 5 is definitely overperforming other go-to comparisons heading into opening weekend. So what is the financial expectation for this audience outside of “potentially more than Zootopia?” For that prediction, analysis as always must be on an audience-level rather than broad genre comparisons. From examining Toy Story’s potential audience, more specific Disney animated sequels (and a live-action adaptation) came to the forefront to better define the opening weekend scope. At six weeks out, the legacy sequel’s  audience most closely resembled three specific films each with similarities and differences that clue us into the future performance: Inside Out 2, Moana 2, and Lilo & Stitch.

Compared only to Zootopia 2 at six weeks out, a $180 million-$200 million opening looked possible. But box office tracking is a marathon, not a sprint, and a single-week snapshot can be misleading. Inside Out 2, Moana 2 and Lilo & Stitch all experienced different growth patterns heading into their final pre-release. Toy Story’s path resembles them in different ways: the overall growth of Inside Out 2, targeted growth among key demographics like Moana 2, strong stabilization like Lilo & Stitch. 

Toy Story 5 has gained significant bumps in general awareness with slight improvements in overall interest and intent. It hasn’t remained stagnant. Its overall audience profile most closely resembles the final week of Inside Out 2 when that film’s momentum was at its peak. Its general awareness and interest look more like Moana 2, which had the most significant final growth among women of all ages heading into release. Its overall pace matches Lilo & Stitch, which saw the bulk of awareness gains in the final six weeks despite minimal downstream improvements in overall interest or intent. 

As opening day is upon us, Toy Story 5 has:

• More overall awareness and female interest than Inside Out 2
• Less female interest and theatrical intent Moana 2, but slighter higher male interest
• Significantly more overall interest and intent than Lilo & Stitch

Toy Story 5 definitely has the overall metrics and momentum to likely match and even overtake its closest comps.

Toy Story 5 has one final ace up its sleeve: Men Over 35. This demographic showed the highest overall awareness, interest, and intent compared to all comparative films, which could be a driver in the overall broad appeal of the decades-old franchise. Taking into account the overall growth and final audience metrics changes the outlook of some of the possible performance options between six weeks out and opening week, but they all still point to a likely overperformer:

As for the final likely performances, averaging together the metrics and key potential audience turnout points to an overperformance of Lilo & Stitch’s three-day $146 million and Inside Out 2’s $154.2 opening as an expected result. With a current median of around $169 million, Toy Story 5 sets its sights on going to infinity and beyond as it could fly towards its current ceiling of around $179 million. It even has a slight chance to take its Inside Out 2 comparison to the max with an overperformance to shatter even Incredibles 2 ($182.7 million opening)-level expectations.