Weekend Preview: ‘Scary Movie’ Is Riding Horror’s Coattails

After the consecutive successes of Obsession and Backrooms, the industry eagerly awaits the next title to extend horror’s hot streak. But with Evil Dead Burn, the next franchise horror film (and only major studio horror film) not arriving until mid-July, audiences might have to look to a horror-adjacent release to get their kicks. Studio comedies have struggled mightily at the box office in recent years. But interjecting a dose of horror into the mix might push Scary Movie from that limited studio comedy rubric all the way to breakout horror success—especially with the help of audiences 25 and under. 

Comedies are an easy sell but a hard follow-through theatrically. Recent franchise comedy reboot/sequels The Naked Gun and Anaconda each boasted high overall metrics. Anaconda even skewed significantly younger in interest and intent. However, despite high likability, each opened and ended their domestic runs at relatively the same place—around $60 million. Scary Movie is similarly enjoying significantly high levels of overall interest and theatrical intent. But inside of those metrics hides subtle indicators that this comedy will reach far higher than its recent ho-hum peers.

Within theatrical intent, audiences show their ticket-buying enthusiasm on three separate levels: watching the film in theaters in premium large format (IMAX, Dolby, 4DX, etc), watching the film in theaters on opening weekend, or watching the film in theaters sometime after opening weekend. Diving into the various layers of general audience intent among the three comedies reveals key performance indicating distinctions.

Scary Movie enjoys the highest overall intent rate above the margin of error as well as much higher PLF and opening weekend intent. The overall percent differences between Anaconda and The Naked Gun may be small on paper, but they strongly hint that Scary Movie is playing larger than a standard comedy these days. 

So, if not recent comedies, what does the legacy sequel more closely resemble? And how should that change our box office expectations? So glad you asked. Unsurprisingly given the franchise’s roots, Scary Movie 6 looks a whole lot like Scream 7 (oof, we’re old). 

From the moment it entered tracking, Scary Movie has been tracking nearly 1:1 with its franchise horror counterpart, especially with the target under-35 demographic. Despite the genre divide, the audience similarities show the more likely path for Scary Movie. Just as Michael made the jump from the biopic audience to the blockbuster audience, Scary Movie is elevating beyond comedy to ride horror’s coattails. 

But, isn’t Scary Movie a franchise legacy sequel rather than the original or new franchise horror that Gen-Z powered to success? Although the target 25-35 or 35-45 demographic might be interested, it might be hard to say whether the younger audience would have interest in a franchise older than they are. Turns out the audience might have interest in both, given its opening weekend metrics compared to recent hit Backrooms.

Despite Scary Movie’s high enthusiasm, obviously gaps exist that may prevent it from reaching the same exact highs of either horror counterpart. Without full premium screens, facing a crowded horror corridor, and likely without the additional Gen Alpha fanbase, Scary Movie might face a comedy ceiling of its own. Thanks to the horror connection, though, Shorty might have the last laugh as comedy’s ceiling becomes Scary Movie’s floor.