Weekend Preview: How ‘Obsession’ Redefines a Break Out

Following three consecutive anticipated summer releases, the third weekend of May might be quiet but is anything but empty. We’ve discussed throughout the year about the concept of breaking out to blockbuster-level, whether it involves riding high genre and franchise enthusiasm like Scream 7, experiencing organic tentpole-level growth in awareness and interest like Project Hail Mary, or breaking genre traditions and performing like a four-quadrant blockbuster like Michael. However, not all breakouts need to reach blockbuster levels to show breakout potential for success. 

Focus Features’ Obsession debuted onto tracking and immediately resembled a standard horror audience for  non-major studio releases. Typically, these releases aim for an opening weekend in the mid to high single digits. Low Awareness all around and any Intent, aware or otherwise, skewed towards the younger, under-25 or under-35 crowd. But what Obsession had that a standard niche horror audience usually does not was growth potential. That’s thanks to high Interest among a largely young and female segment. Rather than relying on a niche under-35 male audience, Obsession immediately showed broader appeal that presented a path for success if the film reached and activated the correct audience.

Coming into its final pre-release week, Obsession achieves that growth and more. It’s connecting not only with its small core audience, but significantly expanding it. For audiences under-35, Obsession nearly doubled its awareness (and more than doubled it for the general population). It also increased both Interest and Intent by 10% or more, with under-35 women still leading the charge at 51% and 41%, respectively.

Looking closer shows that every bit of marketing effort put into essentially doubling its aware base was not wasted. When experiencing significant growth, films ordinarily cannot help but catch a few stray audience eyes who will likely not see the film, a metric here called “Excess Awareness.” For its initial tracking, with only small initial Awareness, Obsession likewise had very small Excess Awareness (only 3% of those under 35). By the time the film was released six months later with roughly double the Awareness? Still just 3% of those under 35! Keeping the excess small and consistent highlights an efficient Awareness campaign among the target demographic for a horror film. This is really hard to do in Hollywood!

Additionally, Obsession’s broader appeal did not end with its initial tracking. While keeping its female-friendly skew, Obsession narrowed the usual gap seen between those over/under 35 as well as the gap occasionally seen between men and women. Compared to fellow lower budget horror releases They Will Kill You and Undertone, Obsession had the smallest gaps between all ages and genders. 

Obsession may not be the next blockbuster breakout. Its box office will be modest compared to, say, The Conjuring franchise. But from a strong broader interest base and efficient growth, it can still “break out” compared to its budget. The weekend will decide how high the film can get wedged in between multiple blockbusters all vying for the same female audience that led the charge for Obsession’s own momentum. But the growth cannot be denied. With Backrooms looming as the next potential horror breakout contender, Obsession sets a strong benchmark for audience-building between the blockbusters, along with keeping up the momentum of Youtubers heading to the big screen.