Weekend Preview: ‘Backrooms’ is the Next ‘Weapons’

This year has no shortage of horror films, from studio franchises to original ideas and everything in between. All entries hope to duplicate the genre’s success from 2025, especially the one-two original horror punch of Sinners and Weapons. Although Obsession ($17 million) didn’t open quite as high as either, it has successfully carved itself its own Sinners-like cultural impact. Thanks to a highly efficient opening weekend targeting campaign and word of mouth, its grosses grew a whopping 39% in its second frame (similar to the remarkable 5% drop Sinners enjoyed in its second weekend). Obsession essentially “duplicated” Sinners. So now, for this weekend, the question is if Backrooms can “duplicate” Weapons?

A24’s Backrooms begins with a slight advantage over Warner Bros.’ Weapons from its semi-pre-built audience. Loosely adapting the popular Youtube video series of the same name and bringing the original creator onboard as director secures at least some of the fanbase. But does that fanbase produce an audience similar to Shelby Oaks, Iron Lung, or Five Nights at Freddy’s?

With a more niche and newer fandom, Backrooms bucks normal internet-based audience patterns such as Iron Lung (or even similarly structured audiences for anime releases such as Chainsaw Man) in favor of  a true horror audience. However, rather than playing as a niche horror title, Backrooms displays notable awareness along with broad interest and intent among the target under-35 audience. In other words, it’s looking like a potential breakout horror release. More specifically, Backrooms most closely resembles its key comp in Weapons.

Toplines do not tell the entire performance story. What’s driving Backrooms’ possible Weapons-like debut also stems from what’s happening behind the scenes with growth and enthusiasm. Backrooms began its initial tracking about three  months out with a niche 22% awareness among audiences under 35, but a larger rate of intent, resulting in a conversion rate of 1.73. By opening week, Backrooms has more than doubled its awareness among this same group and almost completely closed the conversion gap down to 1.03, nearly matching Weapons’ perfect 1.0 conversion rate in its opening week. Marketing is reaching audiences and convincing them to buy a ticket at a highly efficient clip.

Put another way, like Weapons, not everyone may be aware of Backrooms, but those who are aware are locked all the way in.

As for enthusiasm, it lies beyond the standard moviegoing fandom which you’ll only notice if you look beyond the intent rates among aware or interested audiences. One indicator of broader appeal comes from intent among casual or infrequent moviegoers. Any jumps t from either group signals an actual cultural impact within the general public that could result in higher than expected openings. Infrequent moviegoers can make the difference between a fine box office run and a genuine phenomenon. 

Weapons secured a surprising 40% intent rate among under-25  infrequent moviegoers (compared to usual intent rates ranging from 5% to 20% in this cohort). Backrooms, has notched 52% intent from casual moviegoers in this same age group. Plus, the new horror title has a significant 29% intent among infrequent moviegoers under-25, all resulting in a majority 56% intent rate for the entire age group overall.

Backrooms is not behaving like the narrow online-fueled title the industry once thought it would be. The audience is embracing this film like a breakout horror release instead, similar to the other horror juggernaut openings like Weapons, The Conjuring: Last Rites, and Five Nights at Freddy’s. Growing to a nearly 1:1 conversion of awareness to intent, and  overall metrics identical to Weapons rather than Iron Lung speaks volumes about its promising commercial prospects. Furthermore, broader appeal seen from significantly higher rates of intent among casual and infrequent moviegoers validates the crazy breakout potential Backrooms will attempt to match this weekend.