2026’s First $50M Opener: The Race Between Romance and Horror

Remember during the streaming boom of 2019-2022 when Wall Street would inflate or punish media stocks based on quarterly subscriber numbers while completely ignoring profitability and free cash flow? It was the entertainment era equivalent of “Monkey See, Monkey Do.” Media CEOs blindly chased share price multiples that were hilariously over-valued based on unsustainably misleading data points. Honestly, we all fell for it. But unfortunately, some have yet to learn their lesson. 

When it comes to film tracking, projection, and actionable marketing, Hollywood still tends to overestimate topline numbers. Broad awareness and four-quadrant ticket-buying intent are the “subscriber numbers” of theatrical these days. In reality, expectations are far more accurate when aligned with more specific metrics such as how the target demographic is performing. That’s how you more accurately identify the possible range of outcomes and, most importantly, work to ensure the best case scenario comes to pass.

At this early juncture (and with gaps in the release schedule to start the year), Warner Bros.’ steamy romantic drama Wuthering Heights (February 13) and Paramount’s seventh installment in the how-is-this-still-happening Scream franchise (February 27) can become the first two $50 million openers of 2026. But only if everything breaks just right. 

Prioritizing Target Demos Over Total Audience

Hollywood executives used to ask whether or not a genre title can resonate with men and women old and young. Now it’s sometimes as simple as whether or not a movie can supercharge the main audience it’s designed for. 

For the new-to-screen Wuthering Heights, women are the primary target. For Scream, moviegoers under 35 are the key demo. Isolating these two helps block out the noise from other cohorts that may or may not be real this far out from release. 

At the high end, select romantic drama and horror titles can mirror tracking patterns of sequels (which Scream 7 is). When this happens, two key developments can be particularly illuminating:

1. If Theatrical Intent trails its comps, it must compensate with Awareness
2. If Awareness matches the comps, Theatrical Intent needs to stabilize if not increase. 

This criteria helps explain why some films out-perform relatively muted topline metrics in their opening weekends or fall flat. It also explains how studios can no longer rely on traditional awareness to maximize earnings and must instead deploy true advertising to convert audience interest.

The Ceiling of Wuthering Heights 

As of right now, early audience demand signals have the Margot Robbie-Jacob Eloridi two-hander positioned well against other recent female-driven success stories. Its overall profile closely matches Regretting You ($13.6 million opening, $50 million domestic as of this writing), particularly Theatrical Intent. Awareness is slightly higher than The Housemaid ($19 million opening, $111 million domestic as of this writing), though intent is slightly lower. From this point forward, the movie’s prospects are tied more to its ability to prevent intent from falling off. 

This is why the female audience for Wuthering Heights is resembling a sequel: high awareness, slightly softer intent. In the modern movie marketplace, this results in a higher opening weekend thanks to frontloaded ticket sales in exchange for shorter legs over time. Wicked: For Good is a perfect recent example. Its opening frame topped the original by nearly $35 million, yet its overall domestic gross actually dropped more than $130 million. With its smaller female intent gap than the Oz-set sequel, there’s more room for awareness-led upside on Wuthering Heights. 

Using It Ends With Us as a comp creates a wide opening weekend range of $27 million to $53 million. Averaging together Regretting You and The Housemaid yields a range of $39 million-$52 million. It’s still too early for an exact number, but these long-lead indicators continue clustering in similar ranges. These expectations also reinforce reported pre-sales, which put the film on track for at least a $30 million-ish opening as of now. From there, it’s easy to see how the movie might come in on the higher end of possible outcomes. 

The romance genre is often the weakest late-cycle performer across Awareness, Interest and Interest Among Aware lifts and is most prone to over-saturation eroding momentum. But if Interest is maintained, the genre has the proven ability of converting efficiently into ticket sales, which leads to over-performance among the under-served female audience. 

Can Scream 7 Out-perform Its Predecessors?

In 2025, the horror genre grew noticeably younger than in previous post-pandemic years (forcing the industry to once again update its way of doing things). So let’s ignore the 35+ audience for a moment. At this pre-release point, Scream 7—which is looking very strong in general metrics—is nearly matching Scream VI while showing an Intent Conversion (Awareness ÷ Theatrical Intent) similar to Black Phone 2. 

Why is that encouraging? So glad you asked. Black Phone 2 narrowly out-performed the original in opening weekend gross, landing it in its expected range despite some early cycle concern. This was another example that suggested that slight declines in Theatrical Intent for horror sequels does not automatically equate to smaller debut revenue. 

Keeping comps in-franchise results in an opening weekend range of $37 million-$52 million. If we zoom out a bit to compare it to other slasher sequels, we find ourselves in the $34 million-$50 million range. Using Final Destination: Bloodlines as a comp actually raises its floor to around $50 million, though that film benefitted from a more generous summer release date.

Why the Sequel Framing Works for Both Titles

Unlike in years past, female-driven and youth-skewing sequels often follow the same path: Awareness growth outpacing Theatrical Intent while Opening Weekend Intent still rises as well. More urgency among core fans, but less overall engagement with general audiences. Wuthering Heights, thanks to healthy awareness runway and top-end potential, and Scream, a clean sequel tracking profile, are both experiencing similar trajectories as of now. 

Neither film needs 100% buy-in from their core targets or equal activation across all four quadrants for everything to fall exactly into place. Neither film may necessarily reach their best-case-scenarios. But remember our opening analogy: focusing on the wrong data points will lead you astray. Both studios can best position these titles by increasing awareness among women and under 35 audiences, respectively, in order to maintain theatrical intent among the most likely ticket buyers. Add positive late cycle movement—via a splashy marketing beat or strong reviews—and you’re golden.  

Despite Q1 2026 having 28 fewer wide releases than Q1 2025, the early schedule is not without its breakout potential. The key to unlocking and achieving it is a strategic reframing. If both films maintain their current momentum, they could become the first $50 million debuts of 2026…as long as Hollywood has learned to value the important signals.