Weekend Preview: ‘One Night Only’ Aims for the Romance Genre’s Moving Target

One Night Only will try to carve out an audience this weekend in between two mega-hits just as the romcom genre itself is still trying to carve out theatrical space. Romances definitely still make their mark. Netflix’s recent rom-com success Voicemails for Isabelle, reliable Colleen Hoover adaptations Reminders of Him and Regretting You, and star-driven romantic dramas like Materialists and The Drama all reinforce that reality. However, romances seem to come with their own ceilings, with original romantic comedies having an even harder time breaking through theatrically. Looking into the data, we can segment the rom-com vs. rom-dram divide and see that even within the same genre, not all audiences are built the same.

These gaps are particularly noticeable at six weeks pre-release. Around 80% of the opening weekend audience for the more dramatic The Drama (say that five times fast) was under the age of 35 and around 65% of its audience female. Interest and Theatrical Intent among women under 35 was particularly strong, and also healthy for men under 35. The more traditional rom-com You, Me & Tuscany, which saw only 53% of its opening weekend audience under the age of 35 and a whopping 80% of its audience female, held a more even split among women of all ages in Interest and Intent and a far more significant gender divide overall. 

As for One Night Only, it sits almost directly in the middle of the two. There’s a more definitive age gap rather than a gender gap in overall Interest and Intent. Although it hasn’t matched The Drama’s target demo Interest, One Night Only still branches the gender divide seen in You, Me & Tuscany. Overall male Interest and Intent has nearly duplicated The Drama’s at the same point in tracking.

Heading into opening weekend, One Night Only continues to branch that divide, showing some specific and potentially surprising audience segments driving overall Intent. One Night Only, unlike both The Drama and Tuscany, actually skews older for women overall and younger for men overall. Men 18-24 and Women 45-54 specifically are the demographics most interested in seeing the film in theaters. Additionally, some key segments, including Women 18-24 and Women 55+, actually run significantly behind The Drama and Tuscany.

Casual moviegoer data shows similar divides. Among casual moviegoing men and women, men 18-24 again show a strong Intent compared to the slightly more broadly appealing The Drama. Although still falling behind both The Drama and Tuscany for casual moviegoing women 18-24 women 25-34 show a stronger Intent than either film. With its higher than average male 18-24 and female 25-34 Intent, One Night Only heads into the weekend with overall women under 35 Intent that matches Tuscany but overall men under 35 Intent that matches The Drama. One Night Only’s success will ultimately lean on whether it can turn out these specific segments of the casual moviegoing public already interested in the film among two already proven huge crowdpleasers.

Original romantic comedies are trying to find their new niche among romantic dramas and book adaptations. What helps with success is actually discovering who that niche audience really is.  Rather than leaning on generalized demos, understanding the overall romance audience patterns and seeing which segments are actually driving momentum vs lagging  makes the difference between a quiet performance and another potential sleeper hit.