Weekend Preview: ‘The Mummy’ and Horror’s Growth Problem

In the first quarter of 2026, horror came in many shapes and sizes—low budget overperformers, midbudget over- and underperformers, and new franchise releases. All followed common trends in horror. But the differences in scale between the metrics, especially Awareness and Intent, generally dictated the range of outcomes for each. Horror has become one of the most reliable ROI-drivers at the box office thanks to a substantial locked-in core audience potential. And the data suggests that premise/concept can play a key role. While huge potential is nice, especially for later at-home  viewing where horror struggles, turnout makes the difference between a theatrical hit or a middling return. Intent can usually help flag the difference early in the lead-up to release. But Intent can never 100% match the actual moviegoing public. This weekend’s newest release from Warner Bros., Lee Cronin’s The Mummy, boasts  strong metrics overall for a new horror title. But will it translate into a healthy turnout, or are audiences still confused as to whether Brendan Fraser is in this one? To help judge whether Intent equals true turnout momentum, we turn to  growth measurement for answers.

Growth can be an early detector of over-performance, as seen with last month’s Project Hail Mary. But, like horror films, growth looks different for every film. Project Hail Mary’s trajectory  transformed the audience profile from a niche fandom film to a wider-range tentpole film, as was similarly seen with franchise-horror The Conjuring: Last Rites. However, for most breakout horror, this growth comes quicker and can be more difficult to identify…unless you’re looking carefully. 

Last spring, Sinners and Final Destination: Bloodlines experienced small but significant Intent growth among the target under-35 demographic within the final five pre-release weeks. Most of the growth occurred  in the final week. Sinners’ significant late-cycle surge indicated momentum that carried it to a  notable opening weekend and domestic run. The spike seen for Bloodlines pushed it towards tentpole-territory Intent, leading to a $50 million-plus opening. 

Smaller performing horror that initially saw similarly strong  Awareness and Interest either experienced  minimal growth or even saw Intent decline as opening weekend approached. This lack of momentum might as well be a neon warning sign. 

The Mummy showed minimal growth in Intent among the target demographic outside the margin of error of 2.5% despite boasting a high floor five weeks out. The lack of significant movement despite a consistent Awareness gain indicates interest, but not necessarily enthusiasm.

Moderate or high overall metrics does not necessarily translate into a stellar box office overperformance, but they at least show the consistency of the genre.  

By opening week, Lee Cronin’s The Mummy resembles both Sinners and Ready or Not 2: Here I Come despite both opening significantly apart from one another. The main difference between the two comparisons? You guessed it—growth! Sinners saw  significant jumps across  all metrics while Ready or Not 2 simply maintained its higher floor with minimal, lateral, or even negative movement. 

With a high Awareness/Interest floor, Lee Cronin’s The Mummy still shows a strong horror base. However, it is important  not to confuse a high floor for horror interest with a high momentum for turnout. The Mummy, and horror in general, still have notable audience interest, with or without Brendan Fraser. But an actively anticipatory audience makes the difference between a die-hard horror turnout and a breakout hit.