Weekend Preview: ‘The End of Oak Street’ Attempts to Find Sci-Fi’s Surly Audience

Near the tail end of summer, new releases strive to fight it out to be the next potential surprise hit. Although unlikely to be the next Odyssey or Spider-Man, the slight distance from those all-consuming films opens a new window before fall’s anticipated titles (Practical Magic 2 and Resident Evil). Paired off with another dinosaur feature in Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie, Warner Bros’ The End of Oak Street presents itself as the ultimate August wildcard. 

The End of Oak Street leans on named talent:stars Anne Hathaway (following the success of The Devil Wears Prada 2 and The Odyssey) and Ewen McGregor, producer JJ Abrams, and director David Robert Mitchell. But it also contains an entirely original concept in the shaky science-fiction genre. Similar titles—original film The Creator ($14 million opening), book-to-screen adaptation Mickey 17 ($19 million), and even reboot The Running Man ($16.4 million)—all failed to top $20 million in their opening weekends. Meanwhile Disclosure Day, an original concept hinging on name recognition from its star Emily Blunt and director Steven Spielberg, more than doubled those openings. For Oak Street, the questions are twofold. First,can it tap into what Disclosure Day mustered upfront? And, if not, is there still a way to break out of the science fiction audience ceiling?

On the surface, the potential science-fiction audience can be perplexing, especially when trying to pinpoint The End of Oak Street’s placement in comparison. At six weeks out, Oak Street had nearly identical metrics overall to last year’s Robert Pattinson-led and Bong Joon Ho-directed Mickey 17, and was noticeably distant from Disclosure Day and even The Running Man. However, looking at The Running Man’s breakdown offers an initially confusing contradiction: if it grossed less than Disclosure Day and even Mickey 17, how are overall Interest and Intent essentially tied? 

These topline metrics offer a peek into audience potential rather than definitive turnout. Identifying the audience segments driving enthusiasm behind the toplines shows the actual potential for overperformance. For example, Theatrical Intent among those with Interest in the film, reveals specific divides in the demographics that contribute to each film’s performance.

Enthusiasm by frequency of theater attendance reveals a film’s broader appeal. Although The Running Man maintains slight leads among frequent moviegoers and casual moviegoers over 35, the Intent among infrequent moviegoers shows how much demo appeal can make a difference. Disclosure Day had roughly the same rate of Intent among Interested Infrequent moviegoers under 35 as the average group, but more than double that rate among those over 35, the key demo that ultimately drove its $44 million debut. Mickey 17’s similar overperformance among Infrequent moviegoers under 35 also helps explain its slight advantage over The Running Man. Meanwhile, Running Man’s own audience patterns signify its strongest appeal: the pure action film rather than a science-fiction film.

But with The End of Oak Street landing somewhere in the middle of those comps, where can it possibly over- or underperform? Although Oak Street does not have the stark over 35 or men over 35 foundation that carried Disclosure Day, Oak Street’s advantages instead lie with its more innate broad appeal.

Among those who are both aware of the film and want to see it opening weekend, The End of Oak Street shows significantly more intent among women under 55 than any of the comp films. This is especially true against Disclosure Day, as the dino creature feature shows a much broader appeal among a wider target age range, 25-44, rather than segmented to one gender or one specific age range. Additionally, Oak Street shows some broadening among both frequent and casual moviegoers of different races.

The End of Oak Street might not have the Spielberg name to power it to Disclosure Day debuts, but it still has specific potentials to overperform its science-fiction ceiling. By opening week, Oak Street still maintains overall metrics between Disclosure Day and Mickey 17, but its foundation behind the toplines shows a broader audience base than either film that can solidify its performance between the two. Whether the broad appeal means broader turnout or potentially too broad a target to actually enthusiastically turn out is up for the audience to decide. But Oak Street’s potential shows there might be more than one way to branch out for sci-fi other than Steven Spielberg