Weekend Preview: ‘By Any Means’ Splits the Difference Between Theatrical & Home Intent

One final summer vacation weekend for Labor Day can have a lot of options that take priority over the normal theatrical schedule. But “less of a priority” is a far cry from “no priority.” It is up to studios and marketers to either change audiences’ priorities or gauge proper expectations for a film’s overall success both on and off the big screen. For Labor Day weekend, new wide release By Any Means might be a modest counterprogrammer to the rest of summer’s releases. But its theatrical offerings are not where its story ends.

Over the previous year, the smaller action dramas or thrillers have been following similar patterns: modest theatrical performances followed by notable digital sales or streaming performances down the line. The totality of each film’s performance shows that distinct interest or intent to see the film does exist, but that it comes down to where the interest breaks down at the time of its campaign. 

For example, By Any Means actually has a lot in common with last year’s summer-ending action film Nobody 2 despite the subgenre, star, and story differences. Despite a 10% gap in awareness thanks to Nobody 2’s sequel status, both films held strong 47% Interest and a solid 39% Theatrical Intent among the general public heading into their respective opening weekends. But with such a significant grasp of the general public’s interest, how does Nobody 2 open to less than $10 million and why is By Any Means only expected to hopefully match that total?

Intent breakdown reveals how not all interest is built the same. At six weeks out, both Nobody 2 and By Any Means were also nearly identical in how their overall Intent rates broke down.

74% of the general population had at least some interest in seeing each film whether theatrically, paying for it digitally, or streaming it on a platform they already subscribed to. Segmenting Intent into these specific buckets shows that at that point, less than 1/5th of the general public intended to see either film theatrically specifically on opening weekend or on the best screen possible in premium large format. Streaming each film on a pre-paid platform was the preferred way of seeing either film by far, essentially tied with the percentage of the general public that had no intention of seeing the film at all. That speaks volumes.

Once studios have a baseline understanding of audience window preference, the final six weeks of the campaign can focus on either turning out that priority audience or persuading those on the lower end of Intent. By opening week, each film remained relatively similar in their intent breakdowns.

Both Nobody 2 and By Any Means successfully shrunk their “no interest” groups by converting viewers who either had a strong or casual theater-leaning preference. Each film still skewed towards streaming intent overall, leading to a sub-$10 million opening for Nobody 2 as well as a likely opening in the similar $4-$9 million range for By Any Means.

Smaller action or thriller films are easily one of the broadest audience pleasing genres, with a large swaths showing at least slight interest to watch any type that comes their way. But a general interest or intent does not equal a priority intent, leading to a more modest performance theatrically but with a chance of a notable digital or streaming performance down the line. By segmenting intent, it’s easier to project potential performance expectations across theaters and in the home-entertainment windows. By structuring the audiences between those who need theatrical persuasion, those who would pay to view, and those who may watch it for free, reaching out with the right message becomes easier. And although the priority for Labor Day weekend might be taking the time in the sun rather than in a dark theater, By Any Means’ audience is out there waiting to watch the film the way they specifically intended. It’s simply up to studios to understand and work with that intention.