Early Movers: Is The Hunger Games Still a Blockbuster IP?

Hollywood is well aware that the defining franchises of the last several decades are showing signs of wear and tear. Star Wars, Marvel, DC, Jurassic Park, Fast & Furious—even the Minions are not immune to some degree of fatigue. In a world of aging intellectual property (IP), can older high-end recognition still equate to automatic box office results? That’s the question November’s The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping will help the industry answer. 

The box office trajectory of the Lionsgate franchise is relatively standard. The Jennifer Lawrence-led 2012 original immediately established itself as a new marquee property with more than $408 million domestic. Catching Fire then set franchise highs in debut ($158 million), domestic box office ($425 million) and worldwide gross ($865 million). From there, diminishing albeit extremely healthy returns took hold with both Mockingjay entries. After an eight-year hiatus, 2023’s comparatively affordable The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes ($100 million budget) served as a slate-cleaning prequel. At $348 million worldwide, it was profitable, though not a blockbuster. 

Sunrise carries nearly double the budget ($185 million), a clear sign of the studio’s intention to re-establish the series as a cinematic event. But audiences have the final say, so let’s explore what they’re telling us. 

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping Full Tracking Arc

Greenlight Analytics has been tracking Sunrise on the Reaping from November 2025 through July 18, 2026. Awareness, Interest, Heat, Theatrical Intent and Premium Large Format (PLF) Intent initially peaked on Dec. 31. This was largely driven by the surprise release of its first, and well-received, teaser on November 20, which went on to accrue more than 100 million views in its first 24 hours. Entertainment roundups and end-of-year lists buoyed excitement through the holiday season. Nothing gets us ready for the New Year’s like dystopian death battles, am I right? 

This was followed by a natural cooling period. Enthusiastic spikes from a second trailer in April proved temporary. This isn’t uncommon, but is worth noting. Only the rarest of blockbusters enjoy a steady long-lead climb over six-plus months without occasional plateaus. What’s most telling at this still-too-early juncture is momentum over the last month. 

From June 20—July 18, we’ve seen growth and dips within the margin of error across Awareness (-1.3 points), Interest (+2.1), Heat (+1.0), Theatrical Intent (-2.1), PLF Intent (-2.3), Opening Weekend Intent (+1.8) and Excess (Wasted) Awareness (-1.9). Women Under 35 are the top demo in Awareness (59%), Interest (60%), Theatrical Intent (52%) and Willingness to Pay (64%). They’re followed, in order, by Men Under 35, Men 35+ and Women 35+. 

Okay, that’s a whole bunch of numbers. But what does it mean in practical terms?

June’s Awareness growth, driven in part by gains with M35+, wasn’t just empty movie theater popcorn calories. Interest improves and Excess Awareness shrinks, which reflects audience conversion (with W35+ showing the strongest improvement over the last month). The pool of viewers who have no awareness of or interest in this next Hunger Games title is getting shallower. With that context, the small declines in Theatrical and PLF Intent read more as audiences warming up at this early pre-release point, rather than locking in. The latter typically comes within the final six weeks of the promotional campaign. 

Bottom line: there are no early warning signs or massive breakout signals just yet. All is pretty standard thus far. 

Hunger Games Battle Royale: Sunrise vs. Songbirds

The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, which opened to $44.6 million, is the natural box office comp for Sunrise on the Reaping. At similar four-month pre-release points, here’s how both stack up against one another:

As the franchise’s first entry in eight years, Songbirds generated impressive interest and monetization potential early on against low awareness. That was the curiosity factor at work. Sunrise is converting more efficiently and will likely boast a higher ceiling by release. But it’s currently a tad behind Songbirds in monetizable upside (yet with plenty of time to grow). 

All in all, The Hunger Games still stands as a blockbuster IP by recognition, and the conviction gap for Sunrise continues improving. The most recent tracking wave and the past month’s momentum underscore a campaign that is converting awareness into interest, and interest into intent. If Awareness continued increasing without the latter two, we’d be singing a different tune. 

Women U35 remain the franchise’s core demo, but M35+ is surprisingly gaining ground. That’s where the opening weekend upside is found. If Theatrical Intent and PLF Intent bump back up in the next wave, it’ll cement Sunrise’s healthy comeback positioning.