Weekend Preview: ‘Supergirl’ and the New Comic Box Office Reality

Last year saw the start of James Gunn’s new DC cinematic universe with Superman, which became the highest grossing comic book movie of the year ($354 million domestic). In 2026, Marvel retaliates by bringing in its A-tier franchises, Spider-Man and Avengers, while DC begins to lay the groundwork for other potential franchises. Without its own heavy hitters—Batman and Superman—DC and Warner Bros. attempt to find its new superhero audience base. Heading into release, we must determine whether Supergirl carries the identical audience to its predecessor Superman, mirrors the remains of previous DC sequels Shazam: Fury of the Gods and Aquaman 2, shares part of the new male-driven franchise audience from Thunderbolts*, or is potentially somewhere in between all three.  

Similar to how we probed the Star Wars audiences forThe Mandalorian and Grogu, Supergirl is seeing a familiar breakdown for the genre. 

At about six weeks out, Supergirl’s Interest, Intent, and Willingness-to-Pay metrics all closely aligned with Mandalorian and Thunderbolts*, while trailing Superman slightly in the core Male 35+ demographic. With these connections confirmed, the question became whether Supergirl’s performance is pre-determined to be less than Superman’s, yet still land in the $70-$80 million opening range of the other two comps?

It turns out the base is a bit more complicated. What else is new in Hollywood?

Even between what appears to be identical interested audiences, the ranges of enthusiasm differ greatly. For instance, within the final week prior to release, Thunderbolts* and Supergirl have a 6% difference in intent among casual male moviegoers and a whopping 13% difference in M35+. Despite sharing the same rates of casual moviegoer Intent overall, the scope of intent shows a gap between the two go-to comps.

Further complicating the picture is the previous Marvel and DC audience floors from The Marvels and The Flash, respectively. Although three years is a lifetime in Hollywood, overall audience patterns have not changed drastically in that span. Heading into opening weekend, The Flash and The Marvels, despite opening significantly lower than Thunderbolts* and Superman, still show similar overall metrics that follow the superhero/male-driven franchise audience pattern. This highly male-skewing but generally widely aware and interested audience appears again and again in the structure of each comic book film regardless of end performance. While securing this interest or intent audience pattern can be the backbone for success like Superman, studios need to be cautious and build on the base rather than leaning on it.

Hints as to possible performances come from beyond topline metrics. Supergirl has plenty of advantages with its general blockbuster-level awareness, interest, and intent metrics. Its casual moviegoer intent matches others within the last year and general intent among the interested audience hits the 70%+ recommended rate. The film’s overall awareness levels also overtake some of the other lower performers like The Marvels or Thunderbolts. However, certain warning signals also appear. 

While Supergirl achieved notable highs in awareness, intent stalled, indicating a possible fanbase ceiling. The dynamic creates a lower than recommended intent conversion rate of .64. This is significantly lower than its superhero counterparts outside of Superman, which had higher awareness and intent (especially from the target male demographic) to counter its lower conversion rate. 

Many factors within the audience can influence the new DC cinematic audience base. By securing the audience profile with extra awareness, Supergirl carved a path to reach its higher performance potential. Yet Supergirl’s slightly weaker intent levels present hurdles that establish DC’s new base closer to Marvel’s recent floor. Turnout for the weekend will be the ultimate decider in performance, but the superhero base remains the constant ready to activate performances from Aquaman 2 to Superman.