Early Movers: Summer 2026 Has the Demand. Does It Have the Discipline?

Please indulge me for a moment as I do my best impression of a carnival barker (clears throat): “Step right up, folks, to the annual summer movie season. Come and see this hallowed Hollywood highway that stretches from early May through Labor Day. Space warriors, superheroes, sentient toys and cyclops—we’ve got it all across a blockbuster schedule so vast it makes The Cheesecake Factory menu look like a pamphlet!”

Okay, so I’m no P.T. Barnum. But if 2026 is going to deliver the first post-COVID box office year to top $9 billion, Hollywood needs to maximize the theatrical potential of the next four months. The audience is there. Films from every corner of the summer slate show some level of theatrical desire among the viewers they’re programmed for. Now it comes down not just to marketing (awareness), but advertising (converting interested audiences into paying customers). 

As we look ahead, we see the summer movie season shaping up to be a story of guarantees, big swings, and risk as every single title jockeys for position in a world of finite audience demand.

May

The Female Skew Is Real and Stacked

Michael ($184 million domestic as of this writing) and The Devil Wears Prada 2 ($77 million) have already set the tone as female-driven hits. Neither one is “Bad” from a box office standpoint and both are thriving without the “Man in the Mirror.” (Sorry, I’ll stop). 

Based on current tracking, that same audience is already engaged to varying degrees with Billie Eilish—Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour, The Sheep Detectives, The Breadwinner, Is God Is and Obsession. 

The Sheep Detectives is aiming to play like a family film to fill the void between March’s Hoppers and June’s Toy Story 5. The Breadwinner marks clean comedian Nate Bargatze’s first leading feature film role. Interest Among Unaware, which you can consider your persuadable audience, is above 24% for most of these titles. That confirms core concept appeal. 

Even if they all play like solid specialty films rather than mainstream breakouts, that’s still a win. 

Men’s Side Is Healthy

As we see nearly every year, summer’s popcorn season is largely designed for male moviegoers. May is no different.

Mortal Kombat II (63% male awareness, 52% male theatrical intent) and Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu (59%, 53%) are looking rock solid on that front. The core audience is locked, though not necessarily growing as we tip toe into release. Neither will lead the summer box office, but both are primed for decent money. 

Film to Watch

Sticking with the carnival metaphor, Backrooms is looking like a high-wire trapeze act that will either amaze and astound or end in a calamitous fall. Based on Greenlight’s tracking, we’re leaning toward the former.

Awareness as of April 29 is still low at 29%, but that’s up from 14% a month prior. That’s a tangible signal of activation likely originating from compelling trailers. Theatrical Intent has risen 10 points to 36% in the same span, largely driven by the under-25 crowd (51% theatrical intent). The audience base is young, but the film is not siloed by its YouTube-origin IP. Interest Among Unaware (32%) and Theatrical Intent Among Unaware (23%) confirm organic crossover is taking place before the full marketing push reaches audiences. 

File Backrooms away as a potential A24 break out. 

June

IP With Specific Gaps

Hollywood is happy to have the ultimate ringleader Steven Spielberg return to summer sci-fi tentpoles with Disclosure Day. The alien film’s theatrical intent is hovering between 35%-37% over the last four waves. But awareness remains curiously low at 23% despite two trailers. That’s the biggest value-unlock in this case and it’s surprising that the Spielberg shadow isn’t doing more work.

Supergirl, with theatrical intent hovering around 42%, has remained unusually consistent since February. That puts the question mark on conversion. What can Warner Bros. do when overall awareness (54%) and interest (49%) are in line with where Superman was at the same pre-release point, but intent isn’t moving?

Meanwhile, males 35–54 are the most engaged moviegoers for Masters of the Universe. M35+ stands at 58% interest and 50% theatrical intent, 35–44 at 64% interest and 54% theatrical. These aren’t bad numbers for a title still building awareness. But with overall awareness at 42% with five weeks out, and much softer demo cuts elsewhere, this is tracking like a mid-tier title, not a tentpole. Let’s see if that changes. 

The Leader

As we noted to start the year, Toy Story 5 looks like a juggernaut. Its audience opted in months ago as evidenced by its theatrical intent hovering between 51%-53% since November. It doesn’t need to grow its appeal, it just needs existing interest to show up in theaters. Virtually no other summer film boasts this level of intent for this long without volatile spikes and falls. 

Film to Watch

Comedy, much like the Cleveland Browns, continues to underperform as a theatrical genre. Even the recent “successes” such as The Naken Gun ($53 million domestic) and Anaconda ($65 million) aren’t exactly box office barnburners. But brand recognition and horror adjacency looks to be separating Scary Movie from its contemporaries.

Theatrical Intent has increased 10 points since Christmas and stands at 49% as of April 29. Awareness (61%) is creeping into tentpole levels with a month to go. It’s reached the point where it’s tracking at a near 1:1 pace with Scream 7 (which opened to $64 million). How’s that for a twist?

July

The Decided Films

Sony relented and partnered with Marvel Studios in the 2010s because its Spider-Man IP was in need of a refresh. Now, the dynamic has flipped. Spider-Man: Brand New Day has a decent shot of outgrossing Avengers: Doomsday. It’s leading all films in theatrical intent at 63%, up from 57% in December. Consider it the No. 1 summer lock alongside Toy Story 5. 

Elsewhere, Minions & Monsters has remained essentially flat over the last six tracking waves (45%-46%). That would be a slight red flag if this franchise didn’t boast one of the sturdiest box office floors in all of Hollywood. Even with little pre-release movement, its baseline tracking already indicates a likely family-friendly winner. 

The Big Swing

All eye(s) remain locked onto Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. Early general Interest (50%) and Interest among its target demo of M35+ (57%) is looking good enough. But overall awareness (36%) has not remotely approached tentpole levels (though that could change with a new trailer this week). 

The good news is that Odyssey is nearly doubling Oppenheimer’s awareness (17%) at similar ~100 day pre-release marks. The former holds a slight edge in theatrical intent (45% vs 40%), while both stand at 56% Willingness to Pay. Of course, Oppenheimer benefitted from the organic cultural Barbenheimer effect and was more of a curious unknown quality than The Odyssey. How much will the sword-and-sandals action of Homer’s epic be worth in ticket sales?

Films To Watch

Amazon Prime Video recently gave us Young Sherlock, Young Sheldon ran for seven seasons, and now Angel Studios is giving us Young Washington. Formulaic? Maybe. But effective. The theatrical intent for the historical prequel (32%) is impressive given the minimal marketing. It’s positioned far above the studio’s live action baseline and could be a mini-breakout candidate. Similarly, Evil Dead Burn moved up its release date and looks to have a solid horror franchise floor safety net. 

August

Leader of the Pack

Speaking of horror franchises, Insidious’s recent trailers provided a small spark in awareness and theatrical intent. In a quieter late-summer month expected to be dominated by Spider-Man: Brand New Day, it offers some genuine counter-programming potential. 

The Awareness Problem

Following a dramatic lifecycle, Coyote vs. Acme is finally set to be released in theaters. The only problem? Awareness is pretty much flat over the last four tracking waves despite consistent theatrical intent on par with recent mainstream animated features (GOAT, Hoppers). Without a more robust marketing push—and there’s plenty of time for one—this Looney Tunes adventure risks falling prey to Hollywood’s worst habits. 

Steady Genre Patterns

From an audience perspective, One Night Only resembles a romcom more than an indie dramedy. That’s a good thing. Jason Statham’s Mutiny is in line with his lower-budget new-to-screen action track record. (Mutiny’s floor looks higher than Statham’s January miss Shelter). And a Paw Patrol sequel is on deck. Let’s see how much appetite is left among the family friendly animation audience. 

Final Thoughts

Interest is not the problem this summer. There is legitimate desire for the majority of the popcorn season’s releases. A few select high-end films have pretty much sewn up their fates. Others are fighting to be contenders. Some look like backup plans when beach plans fall through or the golf course is overbooked. What Hollywood doesn’t want to see is a continual shrinking of the summer’s middle class each year. It’s a hits-driven business. But tilt too far into top-heaviness and you’re bound to tip over. 

The early signals are all there and the tracking data lays out clear roadmaps. The only question remaining is whether or not studios use the time they have left to shore up strengths and address the weaknesses. The summer calendar moves faster than ever and no one can wait until the final few weeks to connect with consumers.