Weekend Preview: Pixar’s ‘Hoppers’ Poised to Break Animation’s Consistency

Animation is the go-to choice for family movie-going while also providing a reliable return for theaters. Over last year, and excluding juggernauts like Zootopia 2, animated films have consistently opened in the $15 million to $25 million range. Following Zootopia 2, Disney is hoping to buck the animation trend twice in a row with Hoppers. But is the Pixar original set to break the trend following Sony’s GOAT ($27.2 million), or is it the latest “lizard” in the line of “Lizard Lizard Lizard?”

As mentioned, animation boasts envy-inducing consistency. Although generally more appealing to the under-18 demographic, the genre usually has a broader reach. Younger adults and parents are often ensnared in its web. Thanks to an all-ages appeal, general Awareness, Interest and Willingness to Pay is usually far higher than original content from other genres. But even at these unique highs, animation audience tracking still follows a similar in-genre pattern.

Take a look at some of the recent animated titles in their week of release. Although Awareness varies slightly (especially from the over 25-year-old SpongeBob Squarepants IP), overall Interest and Intent are all relatively close to one another. Box office gaps don’t even always disrupt this trend, as seen with Smurfs ($11 million) and GOAT despite the $15 million-plus difference between opening weekends.

The Spongebob Movie ($71.1 million), Bad Guys 2 ($82.6 million), and David ($80.3 million) all ended their domestic runs within close range of one another. 

The performance deltas, and our projection for Hoppers, can be explained by the relationships between core tracking and the deeper enthusiasm driving Awareness and Interest. Smurfs and The Spongebob Movie possessed higher levels of Awareness (shoutout known IP). Each converted that Awareness to Theatrical Intent at a rate of around .59. David, despite having the lowest awareness, boasted the highest intent conversion rate of .73, indicating a more targeted audience. This resulted in an opening ($22 million) that matched Bad Guys 2 despite the 10% gap in Awareness. 

GOAT, which boasts the highest opening weekend on the list thus far, also scored one of the higher Awareness conversion rates (.70). In addition, it had the highest collective rates of Theatrical Intent among the aware audience at 51%, as well as converting those with Interest into Theatrical Intent at 69%. The combination signified a larger and more interested audience base for GOAT, leading to its notable $27.2 million 3-day (and $35.1 million 4-day) opening (not to mention its remarkable week to week holds). 

So, what does this all mean for Hoppers? Current metrics indicate a new “new normal” for original animation heading into the rest of 2026.

Heading into the weekend, metrics are strongly aligned to GOAT (perhaps not a major surprise as both are original animal-driven animation concepts). However, Hoppers’ conversion of Awareness to Intent is significantly higher at .78, indicating a more activated audience. Plus, although Intent among those who are either Aware or Interested in the film are similar to GOAT, Hoppers actually has broader appeal with audiences both under and over 35 (compared to every other animated film referenced). 

Hoppers, while similar to GOAT on an audience level, is likely to build upon the latter rather than merely following in its paw and hoof prints. 

Although genre-specific audience patterns are important in understanding current behavioral trends, opportunity always exists to expand for a single performance and compared to the genre. Rather than being a duplicate of the animation audience (Lizard Lizard Lizard), Hoppers looks to augment it (David, GOAT, Hoppers).