Weekend Preview: ‘Coyote vs. Acme’ Tracking Doesn’t Resemble Most Family Films

With summer coming to a close and September’s potential heavy hitters (Practical Magic 2, Resident Evil) in sight, we must ask if there are any surprises left in summer? For the last week of August, Coyote vs. Acme has a shot, but only if it motivates a different target audience.

Coyote vs. Acme, enjoying a stay of execution after infamously being axed by Warner Bros. Discovery, finally hits theaters this weekend. Its campaign hinged on online sentiment and word of mouth rather than the broad, studio marketing campaigns normally seen with other wide release family friendly and/or animated fare. Although the film is generally still positioned as a family picture, mixing animation and live-action with the legacy Looney Tunes IP, the audience does not necessarily reflect those same patterns. Instead, we’re seeing a fascinating amalgamation at play.

Coyote vs. Acme is right in line with the general Interest and Intent among other long-standing animated IPs like Smurfs, Spongebob, and even newer successes like GOAT. However, the demos powering that Interest and Intent are composed of different audiences. Rather than skewing younger overall like the animation genre usually does, Interest and Intent are largely being driven by men over 35. Rather than playing more broadly like other animated films, men are outpacing women in the same two categories by 10% or more. The animation audience is not quite the right fit.

But there is another, unexpected audience pattern at work that resembles a path to victory. Based on the above tracking with a sprinkle of family appeal, Coyote distinctly resembles family-skewing legacy IP films Karate Kid Legends ($117 million worldwide gross), Transformers One ($129.4 million) and the recent Masters of the Universe ($113.7 million). None were box office behemoths compared to their budgets. But distributor Ketchup Entertainment only paid $50 million to acquire Coyote vs. Acme. 

The film is actually almost identical to Masters’ Interest and Intent base across all of the demographics. Even narrowing in on the target demographic, men 35-54, Theatrical Intent along with Opening Weekend Intent is nearly identical. With an efficient awareness (40%) to intent (39%) ratio of nearly 1:1, Coyote can capture a similar audience behind Masters’ own opening and domestic run, if it is able to turn that same group out.

Coyote vs. Acme’s performance will ultimately depend on what kind of audience it activates. Should it play like an animation or family film, it may muster an opening in-line with other smaller legacy animated films. Should the film perform like legacy IPs marketed as family films, it can open even broader with a solid base while still not reaching the highs of a full studio tentpole. Trying to bridge the gap between the two audiences may be as effective as a plan to use a painted wall to catch the Road Runner. Coyote vs. Acme’s opening weekend is set up through its unique audience promise, with strong potential to avoid an ACME-sized bomb.